Saturday, December 19, 2009

SRMH - Numbers and Scenarios

And now it's time to crunch the numbers.

As it stands right now, 283 votes were cast for NUHW, 13 for Zombie UHW, and 263 for neither. If that result were to stand, the NUHW wins an absolute majority at 50.62% of the total votes cast.

Unfortunately, this is not currently the case, because there are 17 ballots that stand at challenge. Those 17 ballots cannot by themselves make NUHW lose the election, but they can prevent NUHW from avoiding a runoff, and as such they can also prevent any results from being certified by the NLRB.

So let's look at those 17 ballots, and what permutations can be derived out of them. The first and easiest scenario - all 17 ballots being rejected - results in an outright NUHW victory with the percentages stated above.

The next scenario - all 17 ballots being included in the voting pool - raises the total votes cast to 576, of which 283 have already been cast for NUHW. In order to prevail in that scenario, all NUHW would have to achieve is 6 votes out of those 17 challenged votes cast (roughly 35%); by the same token, in order to force runoff, the "no union" slate has to get 12 out of the 17 challenged votes (70.5%).

There are multiple additional scenarios possible regarding those challenged ballots if only part of them are added, etc. All in all, though, the numbers would suggest that NUHW has prevailed in this fight - the only thing that remains now is to determine whether or not either Zombie UHW or SRMH management will concede the defeat handed them last night.


  1. I was at the vote count. I'm not sure about every ballot, but one of the challenges was a ballot where the voter marked NUHW and then wrote something else on the ballot and at least 10 of them were workers who were not on the eligibility list. Remember, the eligibility list is generated by MANAGEMENT. In fact, it was SEIU that refused to resolve the challenges on the spot, which should tell you something.

  2. dang, i feel bad for the workers.


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